Yorktown doesn't make "Point Luck"

And Saratoga? As I recall, the Sara was just a couple days sailing away and missed the main action. If Yorktown was not initially present (maybe her aircraft still participated or not) and TF 16 pulled back after the first successful strike against the Kido Butai, might the invasion of Midway begin anyway, maybe get stalled due to fierce resistance, and the Sara and York have time to join H & E for a MAJOR counterstrike??

 

Historically Saratoga stopped at Peral Harbor June 6-7 to refuel and pick up extra planes to ferry to Hornet and Enterprise (this would help make up for their losses on June 4) which she rendezvoused with on June 9. They didn't transfer aircraft until the 11th, but I imagine this could be done immediately if they intended to go right back into combat. It might also speed up matters if Yorktown could do some of the ferrying.

If TF16 hit and ran, I expect the Japanese would go ahead with their plan - flexibility was never one of their strong suits - but the carriers would concentrate on searching for the Americans, aided by float planes from cruisers, battleships, and the seaplane tenders which would set up at Kure. Kido Butai might search eastwards a bit, but Nagumo would probably not want to get too far away from Midway or venture within range of land-based aircraft from Oahu. They would conduct little if any further air attack on Midway's defenses, but again I would not expect this to cause the Japanese to delay the landing.

The landing could easily be a debacle, which would force Yamamoto to choose between just heading home or lingering around Midway in the hope that the Americans would still come out to fight as envisioned in the original plan. That's a key point, an American attack a few days after June 5 was what the Japanese had planned for all along, although they had hoped to have four carriers to deal with it! They might also bring Junyo and Ryujo down from the Aleutians, although they were poor replacements for Akagi and Kaga.

3 or 4 American carriers could muster more aircraft than the Japanese, but they would lack two key advantages, surprise and the PBYs which did most of the scouting on June 3-4 (I expect these would be wiped out or forced to flee Midway even if the Japanese landing was unsuccessful). Nor would they have detailed predictions of Kido Butai's position and activities as they did on the morning of June 4. They would also be spending more time in the vicinity of the Japanese submarine cordons, which could lead to detection and/or loss of ships. An immobilized carrier would present a particular dilemma.